Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Monday, April 21, 2014
Fibonacci...
High probability TSLA trading with fibonacci pivot points and NDX fibonacci pivot points...killer
Touched SP1, exploded out of the buy-zone through R1/RB1, killed ADR(5) limit range...
And of course, that signal on DMA/EMA cross...golden on 5 min chart...
Touched SP1, exploded out of the buy-zone through R1/RB1, killed ADR(5) limit range...
And of course, that signal on DMA/EMA cross...golden on 5 min chart...
Thursday, April 17, 2014
4/17 morning action
Yesterday TSLA reacted the same way as I thought. Even the gaps occurred...nice..
Didn't make a prediction for today....some pictures to re-cap yesterday...
Not the most "high-probability" trade, but still....
Gap-up should be faded until NDX really started re-bounding... (first red arrow)
Second red arrow was based on clear weaknesses in NDX and TSLA. The move was sharp, so that was a nice 1.5% short.
After NASDAQ really failed to fill the gap three times, while made the same low twice....you could really play it long...
Nice channels, pretty easy throughout the day...
GAP STATS FOR TODAY
gap-up list both:
ALXN - gapped up 20 cents, filled
ENDP - gapped down, 30 cents, filled
NFLX - gapped up 1.61%; NOT FILLED (filled 80% of the gap)
gap down only:
DTV - 0.46% filled
QCOR - 0.56% filled
Note: NFLX didn't fill on 80% chance. It had news and analyst upgrade. For safer plays, gap trades could be closed anywhere after 60-70% fill. Especially, if they turn against you.
Also, news should be checked prior to the entry.
Didn't make a prediction for today....some pictures to re-cap yesterday...
Not the most "high-probability" trade, but still....
Gap-up should be faded until NDX really started re-bounding... (first red arrow)
Second red arrow was based on clear weaknesses in NDX and TSLA. The move was sharp, so that was a nice 1.5% short.
After NASDAQ really failed to fill the gap three times, while made the same low twice....you could really play it long...
Nice channels, pretty easy throughout the day...
GAP STATS FOR TODAY
gap-up list both:
ALXN - gapped up 20 cents, filled
ENDP - gapped down, 30 cents, filled
NFLX - gapped up 1.61%; NOT FILLED (filled 80% of the gap)
gap down only:
DTV - 0.46% filled
QCOR - 0.56% filled
Note: NFLX didn't fill on 80% chance. It had news and analyst upgrade. For safer plays, gap trades could be closed anywhere after 60-70% fill. Especially, if they turn against you.
Also, news should be checked prior to the entry.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
TSLA for tomorrow
From what I know:
1) Exceeded daily by 42%, re-bounded 2/3 of it.
2) Did not follow the market; +0.33% vs -2.11%; 1.32 times stronger than the average
3) Has a 62% chance to gap up vs 35% chance to gap down. 3% chance no gap.
_________
What to expect:
Most likely a gap-up to fill.
Market is likely to gap-up as well; 60% vs 40%.
The ratio of the gap will mean a lot.
If the ratio is close to average or above; I would be bullish on green market.
If the ratio is below average; I would be bearish even on green market.
Overall: I expect green on the day. Probably a fade, if the movement is too strong. But still.
1) Exceeded daily by 42%, re-bounded 2/3 of it.
2) Did not follow the market; +0.33% vs -2.11%; 1.32 times stronger than the average
3) Has a 62% chance to gap up vs 35% chance to gap down. 3% chance no gap.
_________
What to expect:
Most likely a gap-up to fill.
Market is likely to gap-up as well; 60% vs 40%.
The ratio of the gap will mean a lot.
If the ratio is close to average or above; I would be bullish on green market.
If the ratio is below average; I would be bearish even on green market.
Overall: I expect green on the day. Probably a fade, if the movement is too strong. But still.
4/15
You just need to be patient. Look for divergences in indicators and current correlation. Execute and enjoy the ride.
What did suggest today's red:
1) Red yesterday range break
2) Weak open and negative correlation with NDX
How today should have been traded:
1) Open short fading the gap into the sell-zone
2) Short on second sell-zone and keep short after the consolidation break
3) Keep second short into break-out yesterday's low (or re-short)
4) Re-short into consolidation/Range breakout around 12 p.m
5) Sit through consolidation, cover on first green.
What should you made today on average:
1) 0.5%
2) 2.758%
3) 1.567%
Total: 4.825%
What did I make:
Total: 1.988%
Improve:
More attention to correlation, range fill, divergences. Short at the cross 0.5. Watch overall market behavior.
More resistance/support levels should be added and watched closely. Would improve performance today.
What did suggest today's red:
1) Red yesterday range break
2) Weak open and negative correlation with NDX
How today should have been traded:
1) Open short fading the gap into the sell-zone
2) Short on second sell-zone and keep short after the consolidation break
3) Keep second short into break-out yesterday's low (or re-short)
4) Re-short into consolidation/Range breakout around 12 p.m
5) Sit through consolidation, cover on first green.
What should you made today on average:
1) 0.5%
2) 2.758%
3) 1.567%
Total: 4.825%
What did I make:
Total: 1.988%
Improve:
More attention to correlation, range fill, divergences. Short at the cross 0.5. Watch overall market behavior.
More resistance/support levels should be added and watched closely. Would improve performance today.
Monday, April 14, 2014
High Probability Trading with Tesla
It's not too complicated, if you don't complicate it.
1. Fade the gap, play the gap
2. Fade the gap, play the gap.
1. Fade the gap, play the gap
2. Fade the gap, play the gap.
3. Sometimes you need to be patient.
4. Fade the gap, play the gap. Twice. Just be patient.
5. Fade the gap, play the gap.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
got beef?
They talk about asset diversification...
They talk about risk management...
They talk about long-term investment...
It's bloody. It's bloody out there.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)