That's not messy enough!

Fibonacci...

High probability TSLA trading with fibonacci pivot points and NDX fibonacci pivot points...killer

Touched SP1, exploded out of the buy-zone through R1/RB1, killed ADR(5) limit range...

And of course, that signal on DMA/EMA cross...golden on 5 min chart...

4/17 morning action

Yesterday TSLA reacted the same way as I thought. Even the gaps occurred...nice..

Didn't make a prediction for today....some pictures to re-cap yesterday...

Not the most "high-probability" trade, but still....

Gap-up should be faded until NDX really started re-bounding... (first red arrow)

Second red arrow was based on clear weaknesses in NDX and TSLA. The move was sharp, so that was a nice 1.5% short.

After NASDAQ really failed to fill the gap three times, while made the same low twice....you could really play it long...

Nice channels, pretty easy throughout the day...

GAP STATS FOR TODAY

gap-up list both:

ALXN - gapped up 20 cents, filled

ENDP - gapped down, 30 cents, filled

NFLX - gapped up 1.61%; NOT FILLED (filled 80% of the gap)

gap down only:

DTV - 0.46% filled

QCOR - 0.56% filled


Note: NFLX didn't fill on 80% chance. It had news and analyst upgrade. For safer plays, gap trades could be closed anywhere after 60-70% fill. Especially, if they turn against you.

Also, news should be checked prior to the entry.

TSLA for tomorrow

From what I know:

1) Exceeded daily by 42%, re-bounded 2/3 of it.

2) Did not follow the market; +0.33% vs -2.11%; 1.32 times stronger than the average

3) Has a 62% chance to gap up vs 35% chance to gap down. 3% chance no gap.
_________

What to expect:

Most likely a gap-up to fill.

Market is likely to gap-up as well; 60% vs 40%.

The ratio of the gap will mean a lot.

If the ratio is close to average or above; I would be bullish on green market.

If the ratio is below average; I would be bearish even on green market.

Overall: I expect green on the day. Probably a fade, if the movement is too strong. But still.

4/15

You just need to be patient. Look for divergences in indicators and current correlation. Execute and enjoy the ride.

What did suggest today's red:

1) Red yesterday range break

2) Weak open and negative correlation with NDX

How today should have been traded:

1) Open short fading the gap into the sell-zone
2) Short on second sell-zone and keep short after the consolidation break
3) Keep second short into break-out yesterday's low (or re-short)
4) Re-short into consolidation/Range breakout around 12 p.m
5) Sit through consolidation, cover on first green.

What should you made today on average:

1) 0.5%
2) 2.758%
3) 1.567%

Total: 4.825%

What did I make:

Total: 1.988%

Improve:

More attention to correlation, range fill, divergences. Short at the cross 0.5. Watch overall market behavior.

More resistance/support levels should be added and watched closely. Would improve performance today.

High Probability Trading with Tesla

It's not too complicated, if you don't complicate it.

1. Fade the gap, play the gap

2. Fade the gap, play the gap.

3. Sometimes you need to be patient.

4. Fade the gap, play the gap. Twice. Just be patient.

5. Fade the gap, play the gap.

got beef?

They talk about asset diversification...

They talk about risk management...

They talk about long-term investment...

It's bloody. It's bloody out there.

just an observation

Super busy back-testing an automatic trading strategy and trying to swing/scalp it manually at the same time.
Can't even post results, that's how powerful it is.

I wanted to post this observation a while ago...seems powerful.

10/60 cross happens, stochastic rises...and fails...looks like a super nice fader.

I am not a genius by any means, but...

I'm just happy that I sold....

First loss for RUS_Trades

Today I lost the first time and there are a lot of things, that should be learned out of it.

I do consider myself "right" on the trade, in terms of technical analysis.

But overall, I was "wrong".

I traded MINE today, which is a penny-stock and super volatile.

I saw some support around $0.031 and as it was going down, I wanted to play the bounce.

Sort of like I played GPRE yesterday, which was pretty successful.

First mistake I've done, was the timing. I did not learn the lesson from GPRE, when I said that the bounce needs to be anticipated and the position could be taken right at the support.

Maybe if it was NASDAQ, I would finally put a limit order just above the support. But this is OTC and I was too scared.

Second mistake I could call the "lack of the right software". I have to switch back and forth between my free trading platform and E*Trade web-site for orders, which is a pain. Stock could be running in seconds, and I'm still entering the order. So instead of getting a fill around $0.031, I got filled at $0.037. Seems like nothing? Well, it's a $60 difference on my position.

Third mistake was the size. The size was way too big, especially for a penny-stock. I could also call it being emotional. I could also call it being under-capitalized. The size was way too big. With smaller size I could have a bigger STOP LOSS, which would allow me to get the profit. This mistake is THE BIGGEST.

Fourth mistake was that I went in and traded OTC for the first time, while I was not too comfortable with it and I have never done it. I could also call third mistake that I did not follow my set of rules. My goal #1 is to stay at the game and goal #2 be consistent. Goal #3 is to make big profits and I just tried to do that my second trading day. Did not happen.

If I was about to summarize everything, I could say that:

• Did not follow the rules in terms of: position size, market/stock.
• Under-capitalized.
• In need of soft-ware.

The main thing is that the size was way too big and the stop-loss was too tight. That led to a loss. OUCH!

The other things do not really relate to the mechanical process of trading. So let's get down to that.

So, I saw the support and stochastics crossover. Seemed bullish as hell, same concept as GPRE.

I wanted to play the bounce, get a decent 5% and exit quick. Sounds simple.

If I set my stop-loss at the support level, I would have TWO opportunities to exit. There were two spikes, and even if I was greedy or super-confident, I could make even a bigger profit at the second spike.

But I set-up my stop-loss stupidly. Look, this is a PERFECT RISK/REWARD scenario here. Oh well.

My second mistake was the fact, that I did not trust STOCHASTICS. That was part of the reason, why I exited. The cross, when I bought, seemed to fail. You can see my exit, right when stochastics fast is about to cross back. BUT IT DID NOT CROSS. It just bounced again and the stock soared.

I love stochastics and this proves to me, that with a REASONABLE stop-loss and rule-following I could have make this my BIGGEST winner.

I'm not going to talk about perfect entry. However, if I exited on the first peak, I would have made 3%, second peak would have been 6%. Instead, I took a stupid 5.93% loss.

I was all happy about "how smart I was with that stop loss", when the stock was going down at that time. 

Smart stop-losses are more important, than the entry. All I could say.

The golden rule of trading is "let your profits run and cut your losses short".

NOTHING about the entry. 

1st day-trading (and trading) day

First day of trading today.

Did not really think, that I would. Got the scans ready, pulled the watch-lists up.

I thought that I would only trade, if the perfect opportunity comes up. I liked that approach, seemed quite effective.

I've had three or four bearish plays coming, but E*TRADE did not allow me to short sell. Screw E*TRADE.

So I was just hanging out, looking at three watch-lists: Deadly, Bullish, Bearish and Russell 2000 for some price action of course.

TRADE#1

I looked at deadly and PLUG came up. I knew how everyone on NASDAQ traded that stock, Russell was going up. I just decided to take a shot. Because, why not? It seemed reasonable, up-trending, indicators, trend and HUGE volume. Now I know, why there was huge volume. Here's the chart intra-day:

What I liked is liquidity, low bottom tails (sign of strength and buyers) and I also knew it would definitely follow the market.

I did not get in immediately (which I really should, risk/reward was on my side), but hey - it was my first trade ever and I wanted to play it safe. Watched the retracement and as soon as the green candle got over the top of the last red one - I pulled the trigger, filled @6.06 with a position worth of $1750.

I saw the very-very top and stochastics being overbought, but I really thought it would run much higher. Well, I gave it some time and "let my profits run", as the golden trading rule says. 2.55% profit. BAM!

I've already said about the ridiculously high volume at the open. Without further advancement. In a falling stock. Clear sign of accumulation. But it was just way too much for me to think of, honestly.
PLUG ran 42% today. I won't count, how much money I would have made, if I did not exit the trade. Here's the total chart:

How tiny of a swing I was trading compared to the late day action....oh well.

THINGS TO IMPROVE:

• Never end your trading day until the close. I finished trading and went for a run - at the same time, as PLUG soared on the news.
• Be fully prepared. I wanted to sign up for Investors Underground live-chat for a long time, but still did not do it. Maybe if I had it, I would have caught at least a little piece of that move.

TRADE#2

To be honest, the first trade was a little bit nervous and I really-really did not want to overtrade, so I was just flipping stocks/watchlists/charts as the market headed lower. Terrible volatility today.

Then I looked at the chart of GPRE, one of those stocks from a special scan. It was falling with an early 10/60 SMA cross (there are so many opportunities to trade, I just can't do them all...)...

I paid close attention to it....as it was falling, and falling, and falling.

It had strong support @29. Should have put a LIMIT order there, oh well...

It dipped over $29 for a second and start going back right after. "Bounced".

I got some confidence and got in. In case with this stock, I did pretty much all I could. Did not leave any money on the table. Here's the chart.

I regret not buying at 29 or even below. Would have been a much better trade all around.

The stock did not reply to a quick Russell 2000 rebound and that just felt wrong. I sold. That felt wrong for a reason now, I guess. Just a tiny 1.5%, but it's okay.

What I learned today:

• Placing limit orders at significant support level can improve your effectiveness significantly.
• Trading is 7:00 AM - 4:30 PM at least. No exceptions.
• I really need a trading chat. Should improve my effectiveness dramatically.
• E*TRADE sucks. BLOODY commissions. And I have only one day-trade left with this stupid Pattern Day Trader rule. And I can't even short stocks. 
• $3000 is too small to be effective, even with tiny commissions. Definitely under-capitalized.

Counter-Trading Triple-leveraged ETF's

An idea that has been on my mind for quite some time.

Just a thought, if we had a 50k position in both direxion daily gold - DUST & NUGT

Stop loss: 1.5%

DUST Open: $22.1
DUST Stop: $21.76

NUGT Open: $42.34
NUGT Stop: $41.71

This is the entry data with a stop-loss. Let's look at the chart how it would have worked out today:

Well, in NUGT we would be out of the position in the first 10 minutes of trading.

If I had been in DUST, I would exit right now.

Let's look at the numbers:

NUGT: 50,000*0.985=$49,250 or 750$ loss

DUST: 50,000*1.1324=$56,620 or $6620 gain

DAY TOTAL PROFIT: 5850$ 

Not bad at all.....

correlation is important

New post didn't take too much time to come.

I've picked two stocks for my strategy this morning with a rule - buy at the open.

Seems not too effective, as they tanked along with the market. But look at this correlation.

Notice that little green candle with a huge tail? They appeared on two stocks that have nothing in common.

One tanked 1.5%, the other one was down ~7%. The candle appeared at the same time on both charts.

I think of the two possible ideas from this fact:

1. For every pick, correlation with R2K and NASDAQ should be studied. There is no reason to get down even 1.5%, if the market is going down.

2. Buy at the open seems not too reasonable in terms of the risk. For automated system, buy at the close seems safer. For a semi-manual system, it might be buy 10/60 sma cross, buy with market re-bound or something like that. Stochastics could be used.


UP:
Just looked at the RUT chart - 10/60 sma cross was HIGHLY bearish. Should have taken that into consideration with entering a position. Definitely another component in this problem.

Tanking market Monday open

Feels good to be out of the position on TIBX with this volatile market. That was a perfect call.

As I said, "In my opinion there are plenty of sellers that would be willing to dump their shares, if the stock opens over 22."

That was the case...

RUT is tanking harder than Tibco, doesn't have that $21 support level.

Hasn't been so red for two months. Oh wow.

While this market does not affect me financially, it certainly affects my system that I'm testing. One of the two picks tanked 7% already. And that is GOOD. Have to make some adjustments, as better entry and some safery net.

Getting the money from the TIBCO transaction tomorrow. I was thinking of re-investing it in my new strategy, but now it seems a little bit too risky. Will see.

First sell execution today

Today I've made my first transaction, sold the initial position on TIBX.

It actually did not happen on purpose, as I set the limit @21.44, based by the Average True Range.

However, it was not the STOP order, so it got executed right at the open - the High of the Day - which was not bad.

I've decided to follow the rule, as holding the stock through the earnings is a gambling and not trading.

The fact that ORCL missed the expectation also made me sell more willingly.

Tibco has beat the earnings by 1 cent - I don't know how exciting is that, but I definitely don't understand the manipulatory hype in the after-hours.

In my opinion there are plenty of sellers that would be willing to dump their shares, if the stock opens over 22. Tomorrow price action should be interesting.

Overall: the sell was good. Did not wait until the earnings call. Did not gamble.

Result: I've got 3009 USD from the trade, with $20 transaction fee.

What could be better: execution, as it was unexpected.

P.S. I might have left $50-70 on the table, because of the decent earnings results. However, that wouldn't be trading anymore, if I held.


Overall execution:

I've got the shares at the very bottom February, 1. That was the reversal point, an obvious one.

Main mistake was not selling at the very top of the move, where everything got overbought. I was greedy and hesitated, did not want to take the action. I had to t sell on the first red day, when it retraced half of the move - but I still failed to do that.

If that was done, I could probably buy back at 21 and capture the bounce. Oh, well.

In terms of execution today, it was done nicely. The perfect point would be resistance at 22 intra-day, which could count as mistake #2. 

Mistakes: hesitated to sell at the clear top. Did not pay attention to the intra-day top.

What I did well: did not sell where amateurs sold (at the bottom near 21), had the bounce. Did not gamble on the earnings.

TIBX journey and the start of new era for RUS_Trades.

First of all, I deleted every single post from the start of this blog, as it barely dealt with the real things that matter.

This post is the beginning of the real time, when I'm going to make real trading decisions and take real profits or losses.

I want to thank my father for the opportunity that he gave to me and I hope this will be a successful journey.
_________________________________________________________________________________

And I could say, that I have started by making a mistake. I got the shares of TIBX on the February 1, the dead bottom of the chart. I knew it was highly oversold and wanted to wait. I was hesitant to sell, as it was trending and I thought that it would run higher. Even when everything was pointing at the SELL button, I was still hesitant.

LESSON #1: Even if you did not choose your position, you need to obey the rules.

I did not follow the rules - and failed to sell at the top, which put me into the unpleasant position.

There are three points at this graph: #1, #2 and #3(wide)

#1: my initial position. Highly oversold. It would be dumb to sell at the very OBVIOUS dead bottom.

#2: perfect sell. Stochastics is SCREAMING to SELL, as it is almost at 100. I was greedy. I hesitated.

#3: the place, where amateurs sold and I ALMOST sold. Quite big resistance, no movement, indecisiveness... People are MAD, because the stock took such a whip.

But I didn't sell. I decided to obey my rules at least this second time.

What happened is that today, March 18, I became hopeless. The stock soared in the morning only to make the red to green transition intra-day. I wanted to sell. I was mad.

But in the back of my head I remembered a good rule: amateurs trade the open, professionals trade the close. I decided to wait for the close. And some SICK price action happened.

Stock was trendless for a long time, making new lows. I was waiting until the close.

Alert #1 was the bounce of resistance with a little fade.

Then it tested the resistance again...and BOOM explosion!

@21.50 People were exiting, but there were more buyers than sellers so it went right back UP
@21.70 People were selling again, but the SMART crowd just ABSORBED everything!

RESULT: +100$ to my initial little investment.

WHAT TO WATCH: I'm going to hold through earnings. The risk/reward ratio is good for holding.
I am also supported by the volume and results of other companies. I am going to put a LIMIT @21.50.