Monday, March 24, 2014

correlation is important

New post didn't take too much time to come.

I've picked two stocks for my strategy this morning with a rule - buy at the open.

Seems not too effective, as they tanked along with the market. But look at this correlation.


Notice that little green candle with a huge tail? They appeared on two stocks that have nothing in common.

One tanked 1.5%, the other one was down ~7%. The candle appeared at the same time on both charts.

I think of the two possible ideas from this fact:

1. For every pick, correlation with R2K and NASDAQ should be studied. There is no reason to get down even 1.5%, if the market is going down.

2. Buy at the open seems not too reasonable in terms of the risk. For automated system, buy at the close seems safer. For a semi-manual system, it might be buy 10/60 sma cross, buy with market re-bound or something like that. Stochastics could be used.


UP:
Just looked at the RUT chart - 10/60 sma cross was HIGHLY bearish. Should have taken that into consideration with entering a position. Definitely another component in this problem.

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